Market notes
Notes on markets and the work behind a portfolio.
Short pieces on what is moving markets, how companies are researched and how decisions get made inside a real portfolio — in plain English.
New here? Start with Why I am writing these notes.
Healthcare is the tape, but it is not one tradeFive of the ten strongest clusters in our thematic map are healthcare — and the two halves of the sector are behaving in opposite ways.- Short duration is winningThe tape is repricing the discount rate, not growth — and that distinction decides when the move ends.
- Energy is back on the tape, and the order is the informationUpstream first, services second, the toll roads last — a sequence that says the market is pricing duration, not just the level of the oil price.
- The tape and the sell-side disagree, and that disagreement is the mapTwo rankings of the same clusters — one from price, one from consensus — come out as near mirror images. What that does and does not tell you.
- Leadership has rotated, and the tape is confirming itRotation, not distribution — with a macro engine behind it, and Jackson Hole as the test.
- July didn't punish risk, it punished concentrationThe semiconductor and AI complex fell from the top of the cross-section to its bottom in three weeks — and net exposure was no hedge against it.
- Tech is no longer one tradeThe hardware layer of the AI trade is cooling while the services layer picks up momentum — and breadth leans towards caution.
- Volatility is telling three different stories, and oil is adding a fourthVolatility is normalising at a different speed in every region, while the Brent curve points the other way. Dispersion, not chaos.
- Not weak enough to be obvious, not strong enough to be safeA simple framework for reading a fragile regime: weakening trend, elevated volatility, and why a rebound is not a regime change.
Looking for the other half? Inside the process.